Throughout Europe, the people are screaming their frustration and displeasure at the seemingly-never-ending, COVID-19-imposed social restrictions.
In Italy, newly imposed lockdown restrictions prompted riots and defiance from Italians across the country. Two major northern cities, Milan and Turin, saw large crowds gather. While Police said most of the protesters were largely peaceful, looters and violent rioters took the opportunity to blend in and wreak havoc, as they broke shop windows, ransacked several luxury clothing stores such as Gucci and Loius Vuitton, threw Molotov cocktails, and set fires. This comes after last week’s protests across southern Italy, in places such as Naples. Brazen attacks on police, soldiers, and journalists were reported.
The outrage against the new restrictions is not limited to Italy. Barcelona, in the heart of the northern Spanish province of Catalonia, also saw large crowds gather to show displeasure with the new government mandates. Protesters set dustbins on fire and marched with signs that read “F — — COVID-talism!”
In response, elected officials across Europe are trying to implement less draconian lockdowns — “lockdown light”, as they have been called. As we write, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has just announced a one month partial-shutdown that will begin Monday, and French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce similar partial closure measures later this evening. This will no doubt include early evening closures of restaurants and bars, as has been ordered in Italy.
It looks as if European leaders are beginning to catch on that people cannot take it anymore and that while slowing the spread of the virus is important, the people cannot be denied some freedom of movement and deprived of their livelihood for too long.
Europe’s experience with what doesn’t work should inform the policy decisions here in the US — so that we learn from these experiences and do not repeat the same mistakes.
Let’s therefore quickly review how the people can be protected in a pandemic. Absent a cure, there are only 2 ways to be protected:
- a vaccine
- ‘herd immunity’.
A vaccine — and in fact, multiple vaccines — are under way: the administration has pulled out all the stops to make sure one or more vaccines will be developed in record time and it stands ready to massively distribute it extremely quickly once it is available.
However, while we wait, we cannot simply hunker down and shut down the economy for months on end without paying a high economic and psychological price: the cure cannot be worse than the disease!
Instead, we should seek to achieve “herd immunity”, which is the idea that a disease will be much more contained once enough members of a given population have already been exposed to it and developed an immune defense.
Sweden was alone among European countries to impose no lockdowns in early spring when the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe. Their aim was to achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible, knowing full well that it would mean a surge in infections (and perhaps mortality) right away when compared to other countries that went into quarantine.
It should be self-evident that herd immunity can only be achieved if a large proportion of a population has actually been exposed to the virus! We cannot get it both ways: either we get ‘herd immunity’ — that means lots of cases; or we don’t — that means the disease is out there ready to attack you at any time.
So far, I haven’t gotten COVID — but I almost wish I had! (Of course, I assume that I would have survived it — like 99% of healthy people do.) If I had gotten — and gotten over — the disease, I would feel safe and confident, immune, if not for life, certainly for many months until the vaccine is ready.
The Big Picture
Recall what the goal was back in April, May and June. The call was to “flatten the curve” — not the impossible goal of zeroing out the curve.
The objective is to get as many people through the disease, while making sure the medical infrastructure and personnel are not overwhelmed and keeping the mortality rate low.
In managing this process, we should not let panic rule our decisions, nor pay excessive, undiscriminating attention to daily numbers and statistics.
First of all, in any dynamic process, numbers and statistics fluctuate up and down naturally, across time and geography. For a while the numbers are low — and we shouldn’t draw the conclusion that this is a permanent state. Similarly, when the numbers are high, that does not mean that they forebode the end of the world.
Further, it is now mid-Fall and spikes in infectious diseases such as the flu, the common cold, pneumonitis, etc. are part of the lifecycle. It is simply the season when more vulnerable lives are lost: while regrettable, nobody would suggest that we close down the economy every year.
The right perspective on the numbers
With this in mind, we interpret the numbers that are coming out as good ones! What we should want is a high but manageable number of new cases with low mortality.
Indeed, if, magically, we could have 100M cases in the US while keeping the mortality super-low and without wrecking the medical systems, the war against the coronavirus would in effect be behind us.
This big picture is the one that should continue to inform our policies now and going forward:
- large but manageable number of new cases;
- low mortality of new cases;
- isolate and hyper-protect the vulnerable only;
- intermittent, reasonable, local, social distancing and masking rules;
- do not shut down the economy!
Luca Donà, PhD
