Luca Donà, Jeremy Dilbeck

For the past several months the negotiations about the next economic relief package have sputtered on and off but have failed to deliver any help.

In the meantime, the continued absence of relief and increased shut down measures have brought entire business sectors (e.g. restaurants) to a place where many are running on fumes.

We are now right at the edge of the tall cliff of bankruptcy for hundreds of thousands of businesses. Likewise, millions of households face looming evictions. …


The anticipated evolution of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is playing out. While the resilience of the US economy has allowed for a bounce from the extreme lows of last spring, the core issues have not been addressed. For entire sectors the situation will get much worse and damage will become permanent unless the right kind of action is taken now!

Prior relief has been exhausted … without providing a structural solution

The near 3-trillion dollar relief package(s) passed since last spring has come and gone. It HAS provided relief but the form in which these relief resources have been given constrained its duration and effectiveness. …


Throughout Europe, the people are screaming their frustration and displeasure at the seemingly-never-ending, COVID-19-imposed social restrictions.

In Italy, newly imposed lockdown restrictions prompted riots and defiance from Italians across the country. Two major northern cities, Milan and Turin, saw large crowds gather. While Police said most of the protesters were largely peaceful, looters and violent rioters took the opportunity to blend in and wreak havoc, as they broke shop windows, ransacked several luxury clothing stores such as Gucci and Loius Vuitton, threw Molotov cocktails, and set fires. This comes after last week’s protests across southern Italy, in places such as…


As we anticipated, the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has reached a breaking point for both tenants and landlords. If handled incorrectly, the plight of tenants (and somewhat later) landlords can threaten the entire real estate market and metastasize into a long-term cancer for the entire economy.

The situation is bad…

Households: the lack of income means that many are struggling to make ends meet and fulfill their financial obligations, of which rent is the biggest at an average of 30% of monthly net income. …


Premise

The economic crisis is nearing a tall cliff as entire business sectors (e.g. restaurants) are running on fumes and rapidly approaching bankruptcy. The same is true of millions of households who face looming evictions;

From there, the crisis can spread to the financial and real estate sectors, converting temporary loss of rents and interest revenues into long-term capital losses;

While the US economy has shown strong resilience and has bounced back from the lows of last Spring, the recovery is destined to be K-shaped unless strong action is taken now. …


– unless smarter actions are taken

On one hand, the US jobs data of the past two months appears impressive: millions of jobs added attaining the highest job growth rate on record.

Within the context of the crisis where millions of people have been “suspended” in a kind of furlough, economists and lawmakers understand that these were the easy gains. The businesses that are still alive and that still hope to make it through the crisis are calling (some of) their employees back.

Unfortunately, we cannot and should not extrapolate this as a trend and think that it will continue for much longer. The true extent…


some good ideas, but some backwards

We provide a brief analysis of the President’s recent Executive Orders. As we point out, the EOs contain several good ideas. However, they are but a small step in the right direction — and much more is needed. Also, some are implemented backwards!

Extension of moratorium on foreclosures and evictions

Absolutely essential. Regardless of any other measure, this is not the time to add to the carnage with legal actions, nor to add to people’s misery by putting them on the street. The same applies to businesses: we must keep them alive and ready to bounce back.

Missing: Must be extended by legislation to the whole economy…


Open Letter to Secretary Mnuchin and Chairman Powell

July 24, 202

The Honorable Steven T. Mnuchin
Secretary
Department of the Treasury

The Honorable Jerome H. Powell
Chairman
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Dear Secretary Mnuchin and Chairman Powell;

While we have spent an unprecedented $2.2T so far in support payments and loans to individuals and businesses, and are debating the size (in trillions) of a 2nd relief package, what return have we seen for this intervention?

We submit that most of the actions being implemented or suggested will fail to reduce the length of severity of the crisis…

Luca Donà

Luca Donà, PhD mathematician: Economics, Finance, Game Theory, Risk https://www.linkedin.com/in/lucadona/ @LucaDonaV

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